Pendikspor 1–1 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

Pendikspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bandırmaspor

Y. del Valle 31'

Paulinho 90+6'

1/10/2025

1. Lig · Round 19Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Pendikspor45%

×Draw25%

Bandırmaspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PendiksporExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.18

Pendikspor

1.52

Bandırmaspor

1.18

Pendikspor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.80

creates per match

1.24

1.12

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Pendikspor

1.80

Bandırmaspor

1.24

allows per match

Pendikspor

1.12

Bandırmaspor

1.24

-1.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Pendikspor-1.13scores less

Bandırmaspor-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pendikspor ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pendikspor or draw

70%

Pendikspor or Bandırmaspor

75%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

55%

Winning margin

Pendikspor wins by 2+

22%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pendikspor 1+ goals

78%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

45%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

20%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

69%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

33%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

60%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pendikspor at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pendikspor attack 1.80 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bandırmaspor attack 1.24 + Pendikspor defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pendikspor scores more

45%

level

25%

Bandırmaspor scores more

30%

Pendikspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pendikspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Canpolat

Pendikspor · G

7.7

Match Events

13'

Hasan Kılıç

18'

Samet Asatekin

31'

Y. del Valle↳ H. Kılıç

45+1'

Emeka Eze

49'

Remi Mulumba

64'

Mexer← M. Özcan

73'

Jetmir Topalli

81'

L. Nomel← F. Genç

82'

E. Keskin← Y. del Valle

88'

A. Öztürk← H. Kılıç

90+6'

F. Doğan← B. Karadeniz

90+6'

Paulinho↳ Marco Paixão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PendiksporBandırmaspor

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots15

4Corners9

14Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots15

4On Target5

4Off Target6

4Blocked4

5Inside Box8

7Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

368Total Passes416

282Accurate Passes339

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3

1. Lig: Pendikspor 1–1 Bandırmaspor

Pendikspor and Bandırmaspor drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on January 10, 2025.

Goals: Y. del Valle (31'), Paulinho (90+6').

Bandırmaspor controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Pendikspor vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Lig: Pendikspor 1–1 Bandırmaspor