Bandırmaspor 2–1 Pendikspor: Result & Stats

Bandırmaspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pendikspor

D. Ndongala 54'

B. Messaoudi 10' (pen)

E. Eze 45+2'

5/10/2025

1. Lig · Round 38Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bandırmaspor48%

×Draw28%

Pendikspor24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandırmasporExpected goals in this matchPendikspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.87

Bandırmaspor

1.34

Pendikspor

0.87

Bandırmaspor creates 54% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

0.78

0.96

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Bandırmaspor

1.29

Pendikspor

0.78

allows per match

Bandırmaspor

0.96

Pendikspor

1.40

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.15scores more

Pendikspor-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Pendikspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw

76%

Bandırmaspor or Pendikspor

72%

Draw or Pendikspor

52%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

23%

Pendikspor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

74%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

39%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

15%

Pendikspor 1+ goals

58%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

22%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

66%

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.96 · 9 matches

Pendikspor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.29 + Pendikspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Pendikspor attack 0.78 + Bandırmaspor defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more

48%

level

28%

Pendikspor scores more

24%

Bandırmaspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

H. Çiftçi

Bandırmaspor · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

B. MessaoudiPenalty

42'

Edson Mexer

45+2'

E. Eze

46'

E. Pekdemir← M. Demir

54'

Stelios Kitsiou

54'

D. Ndongala

55'

E. Sayhan← J. Topalli

67'

E. Aydın← Y. del Valle

68'

A. Koşar← E. Eze

70'

Marco Paixão← D. Ndongala

70'

81'

82'

87'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BandırmasporPendikspor

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots8

5Corners2

11Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots8

5On Target4

3Off Target2

2Blocked2

10Inside Box4

0Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

315Total Passes455

239Accurate Passes375

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1