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Penafiel vs Chaves — Segunda Liga 2018

Penafiel
Penafiel
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chaves
Chaves
Roberto 52'
D. Kusso 6'
8/30/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 4Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Penafiel37%
×Draw28%
Chaves35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penafiel
1.20
Chaves
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 78 away

creates per match

Penafiel
1.28
Chaves
1.28

allows per match

Penafiel
1.04
Chaves
1.12

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw
65%
Penafiel or Chaves
72%
Draw or Chaves
63%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+
16%
Chaves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals
70%
Penafiel 2+ goals
34%
Penafiel 3+ goals
12%
Chaves 1+ goals
69%
Chaves 2+ goals
32%
Chaves 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)
51%
Chaves (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.04 · 128 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.12 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.28 + Chaves defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Chaves attack 1.28 + Penafiel defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Penafiel scores more
37%
level
28%
Chaves scores more
35%

Penafiel at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
D. Kusso↳ R. Alves
8'
Pedro Sá
23'
Iano Simao da Silva Imbene
34'
R. Esajas← Wellington Carvalho
46'
R. Alcaina← I. Kebe
52'
Roberto↳ Tiago Almeida
60'
J. Silva← R. Alves
60'
Maddi← Davo
71'
J. Sery← H. Suker
72'
Paulo Victor← Roberto
72'
P. Pinho← Ktatau
72'
M. Tounkara← R. Alves
79'
U. Milovanovic← Reinaldo
81'
P. Vieira← Pedro Sa
84'
Jaime Sánchez

Statistics

PenafielChaves
Discipline
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Penafiel vs Chaves

Chaves beat Penafiel 2-0 in Segunda Liga on August 30, 2025.

Goals: D. Kusso (6'), Roberto (52').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril in Penafiel.