Chaves vs Penafiel — Segunda Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 79+ matches
Chaves46%
Penafiel27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Chaves creates 39% more chances
Season form · 79 home / 130 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chaves ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chaves at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.97 · 79 matches
Penafiel away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.41 · 130 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chaves attack 1.34 + Penafiel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38
Penafiel attack 1.02 + Chaves defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Chaves at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Maritimo
Academico Viseu
Torreense
FC Porto B
Vizela
União de Leiria
Leixoes
FeirenseChaves
Benfica B
Felgueiras 1932
Farense
Lusitânia Lourosa
Sporting CP BPenafiel
Portimonense
Pacos Ferreira
Oliveirense
CF Os BelenensesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Chaves host Penafiel on Saturday, 4 January 2025 at 14:00. The match is part of the Segunda Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Chaves vs Penafiel
Penafiel beat Chaves 1-0 in Segunda Liga on January 4, 2025.
Goals: Zé Leite (30').
Chaves controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 7.
The match was played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Chaves.