Chaves 0–1 Penafiel: Result & Stats | Segunda Liga

Chaves

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Penafiel

S. Anzai 54'

2/6/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 21Estadio Municipal de Chaves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Chaves46%

×Draw27%

Penafiel27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChavesExpected goals in this matchPenafiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.99

Chaves

1.38

Penafiel

0.99

Chaves creates 39% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 130 away

1.34

creates per match

1.02

0.97

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Chaves

1.34

Penafiel

1.02

allows per match

Chaves

0.97

Penafiel

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par

Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Penafiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chaves or draw

73%

Chaves or Penafiel

73%

Draw or Penafiel

54%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+

22%

Penafiel wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals

75%

Chaves 2+ goals

40%

Chaves 3+ goals

16%

Penafiel 1+ goals

63%

Penafiel 2+ goals

26%

Penafiel 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)

63%

Penafiel (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.97 · 79 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.41 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.34 + Penafiel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Penafiel attack 1.02 + Chaves defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chaves scores more

46%

level

27%

Penafiel scores more

27%

Chaves at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

46'

49'

54'

58'

59'

59'

63'

lano Imbene← B. Pereira

63'

Reko← R. Alves

65'

Bruno Rodrigues

68'

David Kusso

69'

U. Milovanovic← J. Delgado

69'

R. Esajas← R. Alves

71'

André Rodrigues

77'

A. Romero← D. Kusso

77'

P. Pinho← Joao Teixeira

85'

Tiago Simões

86'

M. Injai← J. Mere

90+3'

Joan Femenías

Statistics

ChavesPenafiel

Discipline

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

Segunda Liga: Chaves 0–1 Penafiel

Penafiel beat Chaves 1-0 in Segunda Liga on February 6, 2026.

Goals: S. Anzai (54').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chaves in Chaves.

Chaves vs Penafiel — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Segunda Liga: Chaves 0–1 Penafiel