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Pelister vs Detonit Plachkovica — Cup 2020

Pelister
Pelister
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Detonit Plachkovica
Detonit Plachkovicaadvanced
10/23/2024CupCup · Round of 16Stadion Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pelister34%
×Draw30%
Detonit Plachkovica36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelister
1.04
Detonit Plachkovica
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pelister
1.33
Detonit Plachkovica
1.50

allows per match

Pelister
0.67
Detonit Plachkovica
0.75

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par
Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Pelister or draw
64%
Pelister or Detonit Plachkovica
70%
Draw or Detonit Plachkovica
66%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+
13%
Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals
65%
Pelister 2+ goals
28%
Pelister 3+ goals
9%
Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals
66%
Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals
29%
Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)
49%
Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 1.33 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.50 + Pelister defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Pelister scores more
34%
level
30%
Detonit Plachkovica scores more
36%

Detonit Plachkovica at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pelister vs Detonit Plachkovica

Pelister and Detonit Plachkovica drew 1-1 in Cup on October 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Petar Miloševski in Bitola.