Pelister 2–0 Detonit Plachkovica: Result & Stats

Pelister

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Detonit Plachkovica

4/1/2023

Second League · Round 22Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Pelister57%

×Draw24%

Detonit Plachkovica20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelisterExpected goals in this matchDetonit Plachkovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.92

Pelister

1.74

Detonit Plachkovica

0.92

Pelister creates 89% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 60 away

2.34

creates per match

1.33

0.50

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Pelister

2.34

Detonit Plachkovica

1.33

allows per match

Pelister

0.50

Detonit Plachkovica

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pelister or draw

80%

Pelister or Detonit Plachkovica

76%

Draw or Detonit Plachkovica

43%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+

32%

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals

82%

Pelister 2+ goals

52%

Pelister 3+ goals

25%

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals

60%

Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals

23%

Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)

74%

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.50 · 38 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.34 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.33 + Pelister defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Pelister scores more

57%

level

24%

Detonit Plachkovica scores more

20%

Pelister at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff