Detonit Plachkovica 1–0 Pelister: Result & Stats

Detonit Plachkovica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pelister

10/8/2022

Second League · Round 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Detonit Plachkovica39%

×Draw27%

Pelister34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Detonit PlachkovicaExpected goals in this matchPelister

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.19

Detonit Plachkovica

1.29

Pelister

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 38 away

1.59

creates per match

1.68

0.71

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Detonit Plachkovica

1.59

Pelister

1.68

allows per match

Detonit Plachkovica

0.71

Pelister

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detonit Plachkovica ↓

Pelister →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Detonit Plachkovica or draw

66%

Detonit Plachkovica or Pelister

73%

Draw or Pelister

61%

Winning margin

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+

17%

Pelister wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals

72%

Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals

37%

Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals

14%

Pelister 1+ goals

70%

Pelister 2+ goals

33%

Pelister 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)

53%

Pelister (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detonit Plachkovica at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.71 · 59 matches

Pelister away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.59 + Pelister defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pelister attack 1.68 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Detonit Plachkovica scores more

39%

level

27%

Pelister scores more

34%

Detonit Plachkovica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff