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Pécsi MFC vs Kaposvar — NB III - Southwest 2019

Pécsi MFC
Pécsi MFC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kaposvar
Kaposvar
R. Rabatin 10'
N. Mazzonetto 18'
10/6/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 10PMFC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pécsi MFC47%
×Draw23%
Kaposvar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pécsi MFC
1.81
Kaposvar
1.42

Pécsi MFC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 83 away

creates per match

Pécsi MFC
2.60
Kaposvar
1.90

allows per match

Pécsi MFC
0.93
Kaposvar
1.01

finishing

Pécsi MFC+0.00on par
Kaposvar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pécsi MFC ↓

Kaposvar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Pécsi MFC or draw
70%
Pécsi MFC or Kaposvar
77%
Draw or Kaposvar
53%

Winning margin

Pécsi MFC wins by 2+
25%
Kaposvar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pécsi MFC 1+ goals
84%
Pécsi MFC 2+ goals
54%
Pécsi MFC 3+ goals
27%
Kaposvar 1+ goals
76%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
41%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pécsi MFC (draw refunded)
61%
Kaposvar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pécsi MFC at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Kaposvar away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pécsi MFC attack 2.60 + Kaposvar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kaposvar attack 1.90 + Pécsi MFC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pécsi MFC scores more
47%
level
23%
Kaposvar scores more
30%

Pécsi MFC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pécsi MFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
R. Rabatin
18'
N. Mazzonetto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pécsi MFC vs Kaposvar

Pécsi MFC and Kaposvar drew 1-1 in NB III - Southwest on October 6, 2024.

Goals: R. Rabatin (10'), N. Mazzonetto (18').

The match was played at PMFC Stadion in Pécs.