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Kaposvar vs Pécsi MFC — NB III - Southwest 2019

Kaposvar
Kaposvar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pécsi MFC
Pécsi MFC
A. Szederkeniy 84'
R. Zoltan 32'
G. Csemer 38' (pen)
4/11/2026NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 24Rákóczi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kaposvar32%
×Draw24%
Pécsi MFC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaposvar
1.35
Pécsi MFC
1.60

Pécsi MFC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kaposvar
1.83
Pécsi MFC
1.97

allows per match

Kaposvar
1.23
Pécsi MFC
0.87

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par
Pécsi MFC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Pécsi MFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw
57%
Kaposvar or Pécsi MFC
76%
Draw or Pécsi MFC
68%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+
14%
Pécsi MFC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals
74%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
39%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
15%
Pécsi MFC 1+ goals
80%
Pécsi MFC 2+ goals
47%
Pécsi MFC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)
43%
Pécsi MFC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Pécsi MFC away — creates 1.97, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.83 + Pécsi MFC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pécsi MFC attack 1.97 + Kaposvar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kaposvar scores more
32%
level
24%
Pécsi MFC scores more
43%

Pécsi MFC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pécsi MFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
R. Zoltan
38'
G. CsemerPenalty
84'
A. Szederkeniy
Kaposvar
Pécsi
J. Gyula
Manager: J. Gyula
A. Zoltán
Manager: A. Zoltán

NB III - Southwest: Kaposvar 2–1 Pécsi MFC

Kaposvar beat Pécsi MFC 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on April 11, 2026.

Goals: R. Zoltan (32'), G. Csemer (38' pen), A. Szederkeniy (84').

The match was played at Rákóczi Stadion in Kaposvár.