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Kaposvar vs Pécsi MFC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kaposvar
Kaposvar
CANC
00:00
Pécsi MFC
Pécsi MFC
7/10/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kaposvar42%
×Draw24%
Pécsi MFC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaposvar
1.60
Pécsi MFC
1.43

Kaposvar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kaposvar
1.00
Pécsi MFC
1.60

allows per match

Kaposvar
1.25
Pécsi MFC
2.20

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par
Pécsi MFC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Pécsi MFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw
66%
Kaposvar or Pécsi MFC
76%
Draw or Pécsi MFC
58%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+
21%
Pécsi MFC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals
80%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
47%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
22%
Pécsi MFC 1+ goals
76%
Pécsi MFC 2+ goals
42%
Pécsi MFC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)
55%
Pécsi MFC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Pécsi MFC away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.00 + Pécsi MFC defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Pécsi MFC attack 1.60 + Kaposvar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaposvar scores more
42%
level
24%
Pécsi MFC scores more
34%

Kaposvar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaposvar face Pécsi MFC (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Kaposvar hosting Pécsi MFC. Match starts July 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.