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PEC Zwolle vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2026

PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Heracles
Heracles
A. Garcia MacNulty 19'
5/3/2026EredivisieEredivisie · Round 32IJsseldelta Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

PEC Zwolle50%
×Draw24%
Heracles27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle
1.73
Heracles
1.20

PEC Zwolle creates 44% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle
1.44
Heracles
0.85

allows per match

PEC Zwolle
1.54
Heracles
2.03

finishing

PEC Zwolle-0.13scores less
Heracles-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw
73%
PEC Zwolle or Heracles
76%
Draw or Heracles
50%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+
27%
Heracles wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals
82%
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
52%
PEC Zwolle 3+ goals
25%
Heracles 1+ goals
70%
Heracles 2+ goals
34%
Heracles 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)
65%
Heracles (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.54 · 29 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.03 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 1.44 + Heracles defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.73

Heracles attack 0.85 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more
50%
level
24%
Heracles scores more
27%

PEC Zwolle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
A. Garcia MacNultyPEC ZwollePEC Zwolle · D
8.9

Match Events

19'
A. Garcia MacNulty↳ R. Thomas
21'
Ryan Thomas
31'
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
38'
Djevencio van der Kust
46'
J. Wieckhoff← D. van der Kust
59'
B. Limbombe← W. Ould Chikh
59'
E. Ahlstrand← M. Engels
62'
Sem Scheperman
63'
Sem Scheperman
63'
Sem Scheperman
68'
Sherel Constancio Floranus
71'
S. Cestic← J. Zamburek
72'
N. Fichtinger← O. Velanas
73'
J. Monteiro← R. Thomas
80'
T. Velthuis← S. Floranus
86'
Koen KostonsGoal cancelled
87'
T. Hamamioglu← M. Benita

Possession

45%PEC

Shots

9PEC

Pass accuracy

48%PEC

Statistics

PECHeracles
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots14
0.62Expected Goals (xG)1.00
3Corners3
18Fouls18
Shots
9Total Shots14
5On Target3
2Off Target7
2Blocked4
4Inside Box9
5Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
363Total Passes423
271Accurate Passes347
75%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
-0.40Goals Prevented-0.40
Discipline
18Fouls18
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
4Offsides1

Eredivisie: PEC Zwolle 1–0 Heracles

PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 1-0 in Eredivisie on May 3, 2026.

Goals: A. Garcia MacNulty (19').

Heracles controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at IJsseldelta Stadion in Zwolle.