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PEC Zwolle vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2026

PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Heracles
Heracles
F. Krastev 90+4'
D. Mbayo 78'
D. Vente 13'
9/1/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 4MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

PEC Zwolle50%
×Draw24%
Heracles27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle
1.73
Heracles
1.20

PEC Zwolle creates 44% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle
1.44
Heracles
0.85

allows per match

PEC Zwolle
1.54
Heracles
2.03

finishing

PEC Zwolle-0.13scores less
Heracles-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw
73%
PEC Zwolle or Heracles
76%
Draw or Heracles
50%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+
27%
Heracles wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals
82%
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
52%
PEC Zwolle 3+ goals
25%
Heracles 1+ goals
70%
Heracles 2+ goals
34%
Heracles 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)
65%
Heracles (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.54 · 29 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.03 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 1.44 + Heracles defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.73

Heracles attack 0.85 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more
50%
level
24%
Heracles scores more
27%

PEC Zwolle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50
F. KrastevPEC ZwollePEC Zwolle · M
8.3

Match Events

13'
D. Vente
36'
Ivan Mesík
46'
S. Scheperman← D. van Kaam
62'
Nick Fichtinger
64'
D. Mbayo← N. Fichtinger
72'
L. Kulenović← J. Talvitie
73'
T. Buitink← D. Vente
78'
D. Mbayo↳ D. van den Berg
81'
O. Aertssen← D. van der Haar
81'
E. Reijnders← A. El Azzouzi
81'
B. Limbombe← D. Mirani
81'
J. Wieckhoff← M. Benita
90+4'
Sem Scheperman
90+4'
F. Krastev↳ D. Mbayo

Possession

58%PEC

Shots

16PEC

Pass accuracy

52%PEC

Statistics

PECHeracles
Overview
58%Possession42%
16Total Shots10
2.42Expected Goals (xG)0.60
4Corners4
16Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots10
5On Target4
4Off Target3
7Blocked3
15Inside Box5
1Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
437Total Passes318
360Accurate Passes242
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
-1.06Goals Prevented-1.06
Discipline
16Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Eredivisie: PEC Zwolle 3–0 Heracles

PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 3-0 in Eredivisie on September 1, 2024.

Goals: D. Vente (13'), D. Mbayo (78'), F. Krastev (90+4').

PEC Zwolle controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at MAC³PARK Stadion in Zwolle.