Heracles 4–2 PEC Zwolle: Result & Stats

Heracles

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

PEC Zwolle

J. Hornkamp 63'

J. Talvitie 58'

T. Bruns 44'

B. De Keersmaecker 8' (pen)

A. MacNulty 32'

D. Vente 9'

3/2/2025

Eredivisie · Round 24Asito Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Heracles53%

×Draw23%

PEC Zwolle24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchPEC Zwolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.15

Heracles

1.84

PEC Zwolle

1.15

Heracles creates 60% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 30 away

1.61

creates per match

0.93

1.37

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Heracles

1.61

PEC Zwolle

0.93

allows per match

Heracles

1.37

PEC Zwolle

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par

PEC Zwolle+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

PEC Zwolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

76%

Heracles or PEC Zwolle

77%

Draw or PEC Zwolle

47%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

30%

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

84%

Heracles 2+ goals

55%

Heracles 3+ goals

28%

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

68%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

32%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

69%

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.37 · 18 matches

PEC Zwolle away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.61 + PEC Zwolle defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.84

PEC Zwolle attack 0.93 + Heracles defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Heracles scores more

53%

level

23%

PEC Zwolle scores more

24%

Heracles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

T. Bruns

Heracles · M

8.5

Match Events

6'

Damian van der HaarRed card cancelled

8'

Damian van der Haar

8'

B. De KeersmaeckerPenalty

9'

D. Vente

18'

Jamiro Monteiro

32'

A. MacNulty↳ D. van den Berg

40'

Ivan Mesík

44'

T. Bruns

46'

S. Floranus← O. Aertssen

46'

T. Lutonda← D. van der Haar

58'

J. Talvitie↳ S. Podgoreanu

60'

M. Engels← J. Talvitie

63'

J. Hornkamp↳ M. Engels

67'

R. Thomas← D. van den Berg

68'

O. Velanas← F. Krastev

76'

B. Limbombe← J. Hornkamp

77'

D. van Oorschot← T. Bruns

82'

T. Buitink← Jamiro Monteiro

90'

M. Benita← S. Podgoreanu

90'

D. van Kaam← B. De Keersmaecker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HeraclesPEC

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots5

2.91Expected Goals (xG)0.74

7Corners1

18Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots5

5On Target3

6Off Target2

5Blocked0

11Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

340Total Passes306

249Accurate Passes229

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-1.23Goals Prevented-1.23

Discipline

18Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2