Paysandu 0–0 Goias: Result & Stats | Serie B

Paysandu

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Goias

5/18/2025

Serie B · Round 8Leonidas Sodre de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Paysandu41%

×Draw26%

Goias33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.23

Paysandu

1.41

Goias

1.23

Paysandu creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.37

creates per match

1.25

1.22

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Paysandu

1.37

Goias

1.25

allows per match

Paysandu

1.22

Goias

1.44

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Paysandu-0.26scores less

Goias-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

67%

Paysandu or Goias

74%

Draw or Goias

59%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

19%

Goias wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

76%

Paysandu 2+ goals

41%

Paysandu 3+ goals

17%

Goias 1+ goals

71%

Goias 2+ goals

35%

Goias 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

56%

Goias (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Goias away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.37 + Goias defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Goias attack 1.25 + Paysandu defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paysandu scores more

41%

level

26%

Goias scores more

33%

Paysandu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Tadeu

Goias · G

7.9

Match Events

21'

Willean Lepo

39'

Jorge Benítez

49'

Gonzalo Freitas

59'

Jaja← Welliton

71'

Bryan Borges← Patric Calmon

71'

Rodrigo Andrade← Rafael Gava

71'

Arthur Caike← Pedrinho

73'

Jajá

79'

Rodrigo Andrade

83'

Ramon Martinez← Andre Lima

83'

Marcelinho← Nicolas

88'

F. Barcelo← Anselmo Ramon

88'

Baldoria← Diego Caito

90'

Giovanni← Matheus Vargas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduGoias

Overview

50%Possession50%

19Total Shots13

5Corners4

11Fouls19

Shots

19Total Shots13

6On Target3

6Off Target5

7Blocked5

9Inside Box6

10Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

378Total Passes380

301Accurate Passes311

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0