Paysandu 2–3 Goias: Result & Stats | Serie B

Paysandu

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Goias

Mike 68'

Thomaz 34'

Giovanni 47'

Rafinha 41'

Lucão 9'

9/28/2018

Serie B · Round 29Estádio Leônidas Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Paysandu41%

×Draw26%

Goias33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.23

Paysandu

1.41

Goias

1.23

Paysandu creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.37

creates per match

1.25

1.22

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Paysandu

1.37

Goias

1.25

allows per match

Paysandu

1.22

Goias

1.44

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Paysandu-0.26scores less

Goias-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

67%

Paysandu or Goias

74%

Draw or Goias

59%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

19%

Goias wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

76%

Paysandu 2+ goals

41%

Paysandu 3+ goals

17%

Goias 1+ goals

71%

Goias 2+ goals

35%

Goias 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

56%

Goias (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Goias away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.37 + Goias defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Goias attack 1.25 + Paysandu defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paysandu scores more

41%

level

26%

Goias scores more

33%

Paysandu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Lucão↳ Maranhão

34'

41'

47'

51'

56'

60'

Alan Calbergue← Renato

65'

Caique Sá← Alex Silva

68'

Mike

76'

Robinho← Maranhão

79'

Romarinho← Thomaz

87'

Júnior Viçosa← Lucão

88'

Diego Ivo← Pedro Carmona

90'

Romarinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduGoias

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots9

5Corners2

19Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots9

2On Target5

9Off Target3

5Blocked1

9Inside Box3

7Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

456Total Passes326

347Accurate Passes230

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls19

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1