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Goias vs Paysandu — Serie B 2026

Goias
Goias
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paysandu
Paysandu
Jean Carlos 87'
9/20/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 27Estadio da Serrinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Goias47%
×Draw26%
Paysandu26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goias
1.46
Paysandu
1.02

Goias creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Goias
1.42
Paysandu
1.02

allows per match

Goias
1.01
Paysandu
1.51

finishing

Goias-0.19scores less
Paysandu+0.09on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Paysandu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Goias or draw
74%
Goias or Paysandu
74%
Draw or Paysandu
53%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+
23%
Paysandu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals
77%
Goias 2+ goals
43%
Goias 3+ goals
18%
Paysandu 1+ goals
64%
Paysandu 2+ goals
27%
Paysandu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)
64%
Paysandu (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 13 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.51 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.42 + Paysandu defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Paysandu attack 1.02 + Goias defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Goias scores more
47%
level
26%
Paysandu scores more
26%

Goias at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
TadeuGoiasGoias · G
8.3

Match Events

22'
Rossi
25'
Lucas Ribeiro
34'
E. Garcia← Jaja
46'
Gustavo Nicola← Anderson Leite
60'
Maurício GarcezPenalty cancelled
64'
Welliton← Arthur Caike
64'
Joao Marcos← Rossi
74'
Leandro Vilela
79'
Jean Carlos← Brayann
79'
Edinho← Diogo Oliveira
87'
Jean Carlos↳ Juninho
90+6'
Thalisson Gabriel
90+5'
Thalisson GabrielCard upgrade
90'
Marlon Douglas← Mauricio Garcez
90'
Denilson← Mauricio Antonio

Possession

59%Goias

Shots

19Goias

Pass accuracy

52%Goias

Statistics

GoiasPaysandu
Overview
59%Possession41%
19Total Shots10
5Corners3
13Fouls16
Shots
19Total Shots10
7On Target5
8Off Target4
4Blocked1
7Inside Box6
12Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
389Total Passes269
320Accurate Passes201
82%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Serie B: Goias 1–0 Paysandu

Goias beat Paysandu 1-0 in Serie B on September 20, 2025.

Goals: Jean Carlos (87').

Goias controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio da Serrinha in Goiania.