Paysandu 2–2 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Paysandu

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Atletico Goianiense

Anderson Leite 47'

Rossi 41'

Marcelinho 45' (pen), 27'

7/12/2025

Serie B · Round 16Leonidas Sodre de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Paysandu42%

×Draw26%

Atletico Goianiense32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.21

Paysandu

1.41

Atletico Goianiense

1.21

Paysandu creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.37

creates per match

1.21

1.22

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Paysandu

1.37

Atletico Goianiense

1.21

allows per match

Paysandu

1.22

Atletico Goianiense

1.45

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Paysandu-0.26scores less

Atletico Goianiense-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

68%

Paysandu or Atletico Goianiense

74%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

58%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

20%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

76%

Paysandu 2+ goals

41%

Paysandu 3+ goals

17%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

34%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

56%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.45 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.37 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.21 + Paysandu defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paysandu scores more

42%

level

26%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

32%

Paysandu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Marcelinho

Atletico Goianiense · M

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Rossi

15'

Matheus Felipe

27'

Marcelinho↳ E. Ham

41'

Rossi↳ Mauricio Garcez

45+10'

Leandro Vilela

45+8'

Ronaldo Henrique

45+6'

Caio DantasPenalty confirmed

45'

MarcelinhoPenalty

46'

Anderson Leite← Ronaldo Henrique

46'

J. Benitez← Vinicius Faria

47'

Anderson Leite↳ Reverson

52'

Marlon Douglas← Rossi

59'

Kelvin← A. Cruz

59'

Sandro Lima← Caio Dantas

66'

Marcelinho

66'

Marcelinho← Denner

67'

Pedro Henrique← Heron

69'

Guilherme Romão

77'

Edilson← Bryan Borges

77'

Shaylon← Marcelinho

78'

Conrado← Guilherme Romao

86'

Thalisson Gabriel

90+6'

Pedro Henrique

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduAtletico

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots18

0.51Expected Goals (xG)2.39

11Corners6

18Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots18

5On Target8

4Off Target5

3Blocked5

6Inside Box10

6Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

278Total Passes355

203Accurate Passes278

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Serie B: Paysandu 2–2 Atletico Goianiense

Paysandu and Atletico Goianiense drew 2-2 in Serie B on July 12, 2025.

Goals: Marcelinho (27', 45' pen), Rossi (41'), Anderson Leite (47').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Leonidas Sodre de Castro in Belem.

Paysandu vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Paysandu 2–2 Atletico Goianiense