Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Paysandu: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paysandu

Matheus Ribeiro 52', 40'

Tiago Luis 43'

10/14/2016

Serie B · Round 31Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atletico Goianiense50%

×Draw26%

Paysandu25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.99

Atletico Goianiense

1.53

Paysandu

0.99

Atletico Goianiense creates 55% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.55

creates per match

1.02

0.97

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.55

Paysandu

1.02

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.97

Paysandu

1.51

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.28scores less

Paysandu+0.09on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

75%

Atletico Goianiense or Paysandu

74%

Draw or Paysandu

50%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

25%

Paysandu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

45%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

20%

Paysandu 1+ goals

63%

Paysandu 2+ goals

26%

Paysandu 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

67%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 11 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.51 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.55 + Paysandu defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

Paysandu attack 1.02 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

50%

level

26%

Paysandu scores more

25%

Atletico Goianiense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Matheus Ribeiro↳ Jorginho

43'

Tiago Luis↳ João Lucas

52'

Matheus Ribeiro↳ Caique

61'

Magno Cruz← Caique

71'

Augusto Recife← Jose Rodrigo

72'

Bruno Veiga← Jobinho

78'

Silva← Luiz Fernando

84'

Mailson← Gilvan

90+4'

Bruno Barra← Júnior Viçosa

Atletico

Paysandu

▼

A

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

A

▼

▼

▼

A

Manager: Marcelo Cabo

61'▲Magno Cruz←▼Caique

78'▲Silva←▼Luiz Fernando

90+4'▲Bruno Barra←▼Júnior Viçosa

Atletico Goianiense substitutes

CruzSilvaBarraAlisonRaulMarquinhoCrispimJuniorLemosThalesCarvalhoDutra

Manager: Dado Cavalcanti

71'▲Augusto Recife←▼Jose Rodrigo

72'▲Bruno Veiga←▼Jobinho

84'▲Mailson←▼Gilvan

Paysandu substitutes

RecifeVeigaMailsonRonieryDominguesViniciusLucasCelsinho