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Atletico Goianiense vs Paysandu — Serie B 2026

Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Paysandu
Paysandu
Robert Conceicao 76'
Lele 61'
Mauricio Garcez 45'
10/31/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 35Estadio Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atletico Goianiense50%
×Draw26%
Paysandu25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Goianiense
1.53
Paysandu
0.99

Atletico Goianiense creates 55% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.55
Paysandu
1.02

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense
0.97
Paysandu
1.51

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.28scores less
Paysandu+0.09on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Paysandu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw
75%
Atletico Goianiense or Paysandu
74%
Draw or Paysandu
50%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
25%
Paysandu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
78%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
45%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
20%
Paysandu 1+ goals
63%
Paysandu 2+ goals
26%
Paysandu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
67%
Paysandu (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 11 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.51 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.55 + Paysandu defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

Paysandu attack 1.02 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more
50%
level
26%
Paysandu scores more
25%

Atletico Goianiense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
LeleAtletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense · F
8.3

Match Events

22'
Edílson Júnior
37'
Guilherme Romão
40'
Jean Dias
45+4'
Carlos Eduardo
45'
Anderson LeiteGoal cancelled
45'
Mauricio Garcez↳ Carlos Eduardo
46'
Robert Conceicao← Danielzinho
46'
Ariel← Yuri Alves
46'
F. Martinez← Kauan Rodrigues
59'
Joao Marcos← Wendel
59'
Ramon Vinicius← Carlos Eduardo
61'
Lele
74'
Ramon Vinicius
76'
Robert Conceicao↳ Lele
77'
Robert Santos
81'
Luizao← Jean Dias
81'
E. Ham← Valdir Junior
88'
Andre Lima← Anderson Leite
90+5'
Ronald
90+5'
Marlon

Possession

56%Atletico

Shots

20Atletico

Pass accuracy

51%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoPaysandu
Overview
56%Possession44%
20Total Shots17
1.65Expected Goals (xG)1.59
7Corners5
17Fouls16
Shots
20Total Shots17
5On Target3
12Off Target6
3Blocked8
11Inside Box6
9Outside Box11
Passing
56%Possession44%
443Total Passes342
373Accurate Passes279
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls16
4Yellow Cards4
0Offsides1

Serie B: Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Paysandu

Atletico Goianiense beat Paysandu 2-1 in Serie B on October 31, 2025.

Goals: Mauricio Garcez (45'), Lele (61'), Robert Conceicao (76').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (56%) and registered 20 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Serra Dourada in Goiânia, Goiás.