Paykan 0–2 Foolad FC: Result & Stats

Paykan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Foolad FC

3/30/2023

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 24Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Paykan33%

×Draw33%

Foolad FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaykanExpected goals in this matchFoolad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.92

Paykan

0.90

Foolad FC

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 101 away

0.76

creates per match

0.83

1.01

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Paykan

0.76

Foolad FC

0.83

allows per match

Paykan

1.01

Foolad FC

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Foolad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Paykan or draw

66%

Paykan or Foolad FC

67%

Draw or Foolad FC

67%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+

12%

Foolad FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals

59%

Paykan 2+ goals

23%

Paykan 3+ goals

6%

Foolad FC 1+ goals

60%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

23%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)

49%

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.76 + Foolad FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Foolad FC attack 0.83 + Paykan defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Paykan scores more

33%

level

33%

Foolad FC scores more

34%

Foolad FC at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff