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Foolad FC vs Paykan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paykan
Paykan
10/13/2022Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 9Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Foolad FC42%
×Draw31%
Paykan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
1.10
Paykan
0.83

Foolad FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 100 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.03
Paykan
0.91

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.75
Paykan
1.17

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Paykan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
73%
Foolad FC or Paykan
69%
Draw or Paykan
58%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
17%
Paykan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
67%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
30%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
10%
Paykan 1+ goals
56%
Paykan 2+ goals
20%
Paykan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
60%
Paykan (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 115 matches

Paykan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.03 + Paykan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Paykan attack 0.91 + Foolad FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Foolad FC scores more
42%
level
31%
Paykan scores more
27%

Foolad FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Foolad FC 1–1 Paykan

Foolad FC and Paykan drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 13, 2022.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.