Foolad FC vs Paykan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 85+ matches
Foolad FC43%
Paykan26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Foolad FC creates 39% more chances
Season form · 102 home / 85 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under71
- Over29
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Foolad FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Foolad FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.66 · 102 matches
Paykan away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.18 · 85 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Foolad FC attack 1.02 + Paykan defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10
Paykan attack 0.92 + Foolad FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Foolad FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Foolad FC substitutes
Paykan substitutes
Persepolis FC
Sepahan FC
Esteghlal FC
Padideh Khorasan
Tractor Sazi
ZOB Ahan
SaipaFoolad FC
Sanat Naft
Nassaji MazandaranPaykan
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Machine Sazi FC
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Sepidrood Rasht
Esteghlal KhuzestanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Foolad FC host Paykan on Friday, 7 November 2025 at 14:30. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Foolad FC 1 – 0 Paykan
Foolad FC beat Paykan 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on November 7, 2025.
Goals: E. Mahrooghi (64').
The match was played at Foolad Arena in Ahvaz.