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PAU vs Montpellier — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montpellier
Montpellier
3/20/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 28Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

PAU33%
×Draw31%
Montpellier36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
0.99
Montpellier
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Montpellier
0.82

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Montpellier
0.65

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

PAU or draw
64%
PAU or Montpellier
69%
Draw or Montpellier
67%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
12%
Montpellier wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
63%
PAU 2+ goals
26%
PAU 3+ goals
8%
Montpellier 1+ goals
65%
Montpellier 2+ goals
28%
Montpellier 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
48%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Montpellier away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Montpellier defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.99

Montpellier attack 0.82 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

PAU scores more
33%
level
31%
Montpellier scores more
36%

Montpellier at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
T. ChennahiMontpellierMontpellier · M
7.6

Match Events

22'
O. Sadik← O. Sissoko
45+2'
Christopher Jullien
46'
E. Junior Pereira da Silva← Y. Issoufou
66'
J. Anziani← R. Touzghar
66'
L. Mincarelli← N. Mbuku
69'
Everson Junior
73'
Daylam Meddah
75'
E. Molebe← A. Mendy
80'
A. Bobichon← D. Meddah
89'
A. Gueguin← N. Pays
90+1'
Steeve Beusnard

Possession

65%PAU

Shots

18PAU

Pass accuracy

54%PAU

Statistics

PAUMontpellier
Overview
65%Possession35%
18Total Shots4
4Corners3
10Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots4
2On Target1
11Off Target2
5Blocked1
8Inside Box2
10Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
525Total Passes288
465Accurate Passes216
89%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: PAU vs Montpellier

PAU and Montpellier drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on March 20, 2026.

PAU controlled possession (65%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at Nouste Camp in Pau.