PAU 2–1 Montpellier: Result & Stats

PAU

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Montpellier

M. George 82'

M. Bassouamina 25'

V. Germain 70'

1/6/2023

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PAU16%

×Draw21%

Montpellier62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAUExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.96

PAU

0.88

Montpellier

1.96

Montpellier creates 123% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

1.59

2.33

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

PAU

1.00

Montpellier

1.59

allows per match

PAU

2.33

Montpellier

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAU+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

PAU or draw

38%

PAU or Montpellier

79%

Draw or Montpellier

84%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+

5%

Montpellier wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals

59%

PAU 2+ goals

22%

PAU 3+ goals

6%

Montpellier 1+ goals

86%

Montpellier 2+ goals

58%

Montpellier 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)

21%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.00 + Montpellier defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Montpellier attack 1.59 + PAU defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

PAU scores more

16%

level

21%

Montpellier scores more

62%

Montpellier at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Fayad

Montpellier · M

7.6

Match Events

25'

M. Bassouamina↳ E. Koffi

62'

J. Ferri← K. Fayad

62'

S. Delaye← W. Khazri

62'

S. Mavididi← A. Nordin

70'

V. Germain↳ J. Ferri

75'

M. George← S. DAlmeida

75'

J. Nišić← M. Yattara

75'

D. Abzi← J. Evans

75'

F. Maouassa← N. Cozza

82'

F. Sacko← E. Tchato

82'

M. George

87'

C. Boli← M. Bassouamina

90+3'

T. Bouchlarhem← S. Beusnard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PAUMontpellier

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots14

1Corners10

12Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target4

3Off Target6

2Blocked4

4Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

352Total Passes631

241Accurate Passes529

68%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls9

0Offsides1