Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Montpellier vs PAU — Ligue 2 2018

Montpellier
Montpellier
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
PAU
PAU
R. Touzghar 17'
12/6/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montpellier48%
×Draw25%
PAU27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montpellier
1.62
PAU
1.16

Montpellier creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Montpellier
1.59
PAU
1.14

allows per match

Montpellier
1.18
PAU
1.65

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw
73%
Montpellier or PAU
75%
Draw or PAU
52%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+
25%
PAU wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals
80%
Montpellier 2+ goals
48%
Montpellier 3+ goals
22%
PAU 1+ goals
69%
PAU 2+ goals
32%
PAU 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)
64%
PAU (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

PAU away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.59 + PAU defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.62

PAU attack 1.14 + Montpellier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Montpellier scores more
48%
level
25%
PAU scores more
27%

Montpellier at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
N. RaveyrePAUPAU · G
9.2

Match Events

17'
R. Touzghar↳ G. Versini
23'
Rayan Touzghar
33'
Cheikh Fall
39'
Khalil Fayad
41'
Omar Sadik
46'
S. Karamoko← Kante
55'
E. Zuliani← G. Versini
59'
N. Glossoa← O. Sissoko
74'
Y. Mouanga← K. Fayad
74'
V. Orakpo← N. Mbuku
79'
L. Mincarelli← T. Sainte-Luce
85'
Setigui Karamoko
87'
K. Dong← T. Pouilly
87'
R. Messi← R. Touzghar
90+2'
Theo Chennahi
90'
Neil Glossoa

Possession

56%Montpellier

Shots

13Montpellier

Pass accuracy

52%Montpellier

Statistics

MontpellierPAU
Overview
56%Possession44%
13Total Shots8
13Corners4
22Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots8
5On Target4
5Off Target3
3Blocked1
8Inside Box6
5Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
381Total Passes311
323Accurate Passes245
85%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
22Fouls18
2Yellow Cards5
2Offsides1

Ligue 2: Montpellier 0–1 PAU

PAU beat Montpellier 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 6, 2025.

Goals: R. Touzghar (17').

Montpellier controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.