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PAU vs Metz — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Metz
Metz
M. George 79'
J. Prior 58' (OG)
4/8/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

PAU30%
×Draw27%
Metz42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.08
Metz
1.33

Metz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 62 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Metz
1.39

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Metz
0.84

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PAU or draw
58%
PAU or Metz
73%
Draw or Metz
70%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
12%
Metz wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
66%
PAU 2+ goals
29%
PAU 3+ goals
10%
Metz 1+ goals
74%
Metz 2+ goals
38%
Metz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
42%
Metz (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Metz away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.84 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Metz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08

Metz attack 1.39 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

PAU scores more
30%
level
27%
Metz scores more
42%

Metz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. GeorgePAUPAU · F
7.5

Match Events

44'
Fali Candé
49'
Yanis Begraoui
58'
J. PriorOwn goal
67'
M. George← Y. Begraoui
68'
Jean Ruiz
74'
A. Atta← C. Sabaly
75'
D. Abzi← Q. Boisgard
75'
C. Boli← J. Evans
75'
E. Sylvestre← S. DAlmeida
79'
M. George↳ C. Boli
84'
L. Joseph← L. Gueye
84'
A. Jallow← Y. Maziz
85'
J. N'Duquidi← K. NDoram
86'
Joseph N'Duquidi
89'
X. Skuka← G. Mikautadze

Possession

46%PAU

Shots

7PAU

Pass accuracy

49%PAU

Statistics

PAUMetz
Overview
46%Possession54%
7Total Shots9
1Corners1
10Fouls17
Shots
7Total Shots9
2On Target2
4Off Target5
1Blocked2
4Inside Box5
3Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
407Total Passes493
313Accurate Passes401
77%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Ligue 2: PAU 1–1 Metz

PAU and Metz drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on April 8, 2023.

Goals: J. Prior (58' o.g.), M. George (79').

Metz controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Nouste Camp in Bizanos.