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Metz vs PAU — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PAU
PAU
10/1/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Metz55%
×Draw24%
PAU21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.72
PAU
0.98

Metz creates 76% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 110 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
PAU
1.14

allows per match

Metz
0.82
PAU
1.65

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Metz or draw
79%
Metz or PAU
76%
Draw or PAU
45%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
30%
PAU wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
82%
Metz 2+ goals
51%
Metz 3+ goals
25%
PAU 1+ goals
62%
PAU 2+ goals
26%
PAU 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
72%
PAU (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 62 matches

PAU away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + PAU defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.72

PAU attack 1.14 + Metz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Metz scores more
55%
level
24%
PAU scores more
21%

Metz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Metz 1–0 PAU

Metz beat PAU 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.