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Metz vs PAU — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PAU
PAU
1/4/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Metz55%
×Draw24%
PAU21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.72
PAU
0.98

Metz creates 76% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 110 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
PAU
1.14

allows per match

Metz
0.82
PAU
1.65

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Metz or draw
79%
Metz or PAU
76%
Draw or PAU
45%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
30%
PAU wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
82%
Metz 2+ goals
51%
Metz 3+ goals
25%
PAU 1+ goals
62%
PAU 2+ goals
26%
PAU 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
72%
PAU (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 62 matches

PAU away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + PAU defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.72

PAU attack 1.14 + Metz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Metz scores more
55%
level
24%
PAU scores more
21%

Metz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
G. HeinMetzMetz · M
8.3

Match Events

13'
Jean Ruiz
34'
Kouadio Ange Ahoussou
39'
Aboubacar Lô
46'
K. Gasnier← O. Ngom
68'
M. Bokele Mputu← I. Sané
68'
J. Mangondo← Fali Candé
77'
Y. Njoh← K. Diawara
83'
K. Van Den Kerkhof← K. Kouao
83'
A. Jallow← J. Deminguet

Possession

64%Metz

Shots

21Metz

Pass accuracy

53%Metz

Statistics

MetzPAU
Overview
64%Possession36%
21Total Shots15
6Corners6
9Fouls12
Shots
21Total Shots15
6On Target3
9Off Target8
6Blocked4
17Inside Box9
4Outside Box6
Passing
64%Possession36%
547Total Passes297
484Accurate Passes233
88%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Metz vs PAU

Metz and PAU drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on January 4, 2025.

Metz controlled possession (64%) and registered 21 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.