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PAU vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
A. Mille 90+3'
P. Mboup 43'
M. Douane 46'
H. Saivet 11'
4/11/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

PAU39%
×Draw28%
Clermont Foot33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.24
Clermont Foot
1.13

PAU creates 10% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 98 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

PAU or draw
67%
PAU or Clermont Foot
72%
Draw or Clermont Foot
61%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
17%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
71%
PAU 2+ goals
35%
PAU 3+ goals
13%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
68%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
31%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
54%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

PAU scores more
39%
level
28%
Clermont Foot scores more
33%

PAU at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
T. GuivarchClermont FootClermont Foot · G
9.0

Match Events

11'
H. Saivet↳ M. Douane
43'
P. Mboup
46'
M. Douane↳ K. Bamba
55'
Yohann Magnin
66'
F. Diédhiou← K. Bamba
67'
Ousmane Kanté
68'
Allan Ackra
73'
M. Chahiri← O. Ngom
73'
J. Kalulu← J. Obiang
73'
K. Diawara← M. Bangré
74'
M. Baaloudj← A. Ackra
74'
T. Diagouraga← M. Bassouamina
75'
Yoann Salmier
81'
Jordy Gaspar← T. Koudou
82'
Y. Bellache← I. Coulibaly
82'
C. Konaté← M. Douane
90+3'
A. Mille

Possession

51%PAU

Shots

22PAU

Pass accuracy

50%PAU

Statistics

PAUClermont
Overview
51%Possession49%
22Total Shots6
7Corners5
14Fouls13
Shots
22Total Shots6
11On Target3
4Off Target0
7Blocked3
15Inside Box5
7Outside Box1
Passing
51%Possession49%
407Total Passes396
354Accurate Passes343
87%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
0Saves9
Discipline
14Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Match Recap: PAU vs Clermont Foot

PAU and Clermont Foot drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on April 11, 2025.

Goals: H. Saivet (11'), P. Mboup (43'), M. Douane (46'), A. Mille (90+3').

PAU controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Nouste Camp in Bizanos.