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Clermont Foot vs PAU — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
PAU
PAU
H. Saivet 60'
H. Keïta 7'
T. Arconte 45+2'
K. Boutaïb 16'
8/16/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Gabriel-Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot46%
×Draw26%
PAU28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.48
PAU
1.08

Clermont Foot creates 37% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 110 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
PAU
1.14

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
PAU
1.65

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
72%
Clermont Foot or PAU
74%
Draw or PAU
54%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
23%
PAU wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
77%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
43%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
19%
PAU 1+ goals
66%
PAU 2+ goals
29%
PAU 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
63%
PAU (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

PAU away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + PAU defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

PAU attack 1.14 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
46%
level
26%
PAU scores more
28%

Clermont Foot at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
H. SaivetClermont FootClermont Foot · F
8.9

Match Events

7'
H. Keïta↳ H. Saivet
16'
K. Boutaïb↳ A. Bobichon
22'
J. Kalulu← K. Boto
24'
Oumar Ngom
27'
Yoël Armougom
34'
Y. Diaby← M. Inchaud
45+2'
T. Arconte↳ P. Mboup
60'
H. Saivet↳ D. Da Silva
61'
A. Ackra← H. Keïta
67'
A. Mille← O. Ngom
67'
Y. Njoh← T. Arconte
72'
O. Kanté← X. Kouassi
85'
A. Maurer← M. Douane
86'
M. Toure← M. Bassouamina
90+5'
Ousmane Kanté
90'
Antoine Mille
90+5'
Antonin Bobichon

Possession

58%Clermont

Shots

13Clermont

Pass accuracy

52%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontPAU
Overview
58%Possession42%
13Total Shots11
4Corners6
12Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots11
5On Target4
6Off Target4
2Blocked3
10Inside Box7
3Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
567Total Passes399
485Accurate Passes320
86%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs PAU

Clermont Foot and PAU drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on August 16, 2024.

Goals: H. Keïta (7'), K. Boutaïb (16'), T. Arconte (45+2'), H. Saivet (60').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.