PAU 2–1 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

PAU

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Clermont Foot

S. Beusnard 90+1'

M. George 53'

J. Berthomier 30'

4/10/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade Municipal du Hameau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

PAU39%

×Draw28%

Clermont Foot33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAUExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.13

PAU

1.24

Clermont Foot

1.13

PAU creates 10% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 98 away

1.32

creates per match

0.99

1.27

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

PAU

1.32

Clermont Foot

0.99

allows per match

PAU

1.27

Clermont Foot

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAU+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

PAU or draw

67%

PAU or Clermont Foot

72%

Draw or Clermont Foot

61%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+

17%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals

71%

PAU 2+ goals

35%

PAU 3+ goals

13%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

68%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

31%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)

54%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

PAU scores more

39%

level

28%

Clermont Foot scores more

33%

PAU at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Armand

PAU · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Erwin Koffi

12'

M. Dembélé← E. Koffi

30'

Antoine Batisse

30'

J. Berthomier↳ Y. Magnin

53'

59'

61'

65'

67'

73'

73'

80'

82'

S. Beusnard← V. Lobry

82'

A. Zedadka← A. Seidu

82'

J. Iglesias← J. Berthomier

86'

J. Tell← M. Bayo

90+1'

S. Beusnard↳ Itaitinga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PAUClermont

Overview

34%Possession66%

13Total Shots15

7Corners5

14Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots15

6On Target5

7Off Target5

0Blocked5

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box10

Passing

34%Possession66%

269Total Passes523

193Accurate Passes438

72%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls18

4Yellow Cards3