PAU 1–0 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

PAU

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chateauroux

M. George 58'

3/2/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade Municipal du Hameau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

PAU45%

×Draw28%

Chateauroux28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAUExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.98

PAU

1.33

Chateauroux

0.98

PAU creates 36% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

1.32

creates per match

0.69

1.27

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

PAU

1.32

Chateauroux

0.69

allows per match

PAU

1.27

Chateauroux

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAU+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

PAU or draw

72%

PAU or Chateauroux

72%

Draw or Chateauroux

55%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+

21%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals

74%

PAU 2+ goals

38%

PAU 3+ goals

15%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

62%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

26%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)

62%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.33 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Chateauroux defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chateauroux attack 0.69 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PAU scores more

45%

level

28%

Chateauroux scores more

28%

PAU at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Batisse

PAU · D

7.7

Match Events

20'

Romain Grange

27'

Quentin Daubin

43'

Christopher Operi

46'

E. Assifuah← C. Sabaly

53'

Ebenezer Assifuah

56'

Scotty Sadzoute

58'

M. George↳ E. Koffi

65'

S. Beusnard← M. George

65'

R. Boukari← A. Gonçalves

78'

G. Sunu← L. Leroy

81'

M. Ba← Itaitinga

85'

Prince Ibara

87'

Y. Merdji← I. Chouaref

88'

M. Dembélé← Q. Daubin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PAUChateauroux

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots13

3Corners5

20Fouls25

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target3

3Off Target8

3Blocked2

4Inside Box8

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

407Total Passes372

314Accurate Passes276

77%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls25

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1