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Chateauroux vs PAU — Coupe de France 2018

Chateauroux
Chateauroux
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PAU
PAU
12/8/2018Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chateauroux38%
×Draw24%
PAU38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chateauroux
1.52
PAU
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Chateauroux
1.83
PAU
1.71

allows per match

Chateauroux
1.33
PAU
1.21

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw
62%
Chateauroux or PAU
76%
Draw or PAU
62%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+
18%
PAU wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals
78%
Chateauroux 2+ goals
45%
Chateauroux 3+ goals
20%
PAU 1+ goals
78%
PAU 2+ goals
45%
PAU 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)
50%
PAU (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

PAU away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.83 + PAU defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

PAU attack 1.71 + Chateauroux defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chateauroux scores more
38%
level
24%
PAU scores more
38%

Chateauroux at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chateauroux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Chateauroux 4–0 PAU

Chateauroux beat PAU 4-0 in Coupe de France on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux).