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Chateauroux vs PAU — Ligue 2 2018

Chateauroux
Chateauroux
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
PAU
PAU
11/7/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chateauroux37%
×Draw26%
PAU37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chateauroux
1.35
PAU
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 110 away

creates per match

Chateauroux
1.06
PAU
1.14

allows per match

Chateauroux
1.57
PAU
1.65

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw
63%
Chateauroux or PAU
74%
Draw or PAU
63%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+
17%
PAU wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals
74%
Chateauroux 2+ goals
39%
Chateauroux 3+ goals
15%
PAU 1+ goals
74%
PAU 2+ goals
39%
PAU 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)
50%
PAU (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

PAU away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.06 + PAU defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.35

PAU attack 1.14 + Chateauroux defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chateauroux scores more
37%
level
26%
PAU scores more
37%

Chateauroux at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chateauroux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chateauroux vs PAU

PAU beat Chateauroux 3-0 in Ligue 2 on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Petit in Châteauroux.