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Pattani vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Pattani
Pattani
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
10/4/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 8Rainbow Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pattani53%
×Draw24%
Kasetsart FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pattani
1.76
Kasetsart FC
1.08

Pattani creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 132 away

creates per match

Pattani
1.67
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Pattani
1.28
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Pattani+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pattani ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pattani or draw
77%
Pattani or Kasetsart FC
76%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
47%

Winning margin

Pattani wins by 2+
29%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pattani 1+ goals
83%
Pattani 2+ goals
52%
Pattani 3+ goals
26%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
66%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
29%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pattani (draw refunded)
70%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pattani at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pattani attack 1.67 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Pattani defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pattani scores more
53%
level
24%
Kasetsart FC scores more
23%

Pattani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pattani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Pattani 3–3 Kasetsart FC

Pattani and Kasetsart FC drew 3-3 in Thai League 2 on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Rainbow Stadium.