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Pattani vs Kasetsart FC — League Cup 2021

Pattani
Pattani
FT
0 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
10/25/2023League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsRainbow Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pattani22%
×Draw28%
Kasetsart FC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pattani
0.81
Kasetsart FC
1.38

Kasetsart FC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pattani
1.13
Kasetsart FC
1.25

allows per match

Pattani
1.50
Kasetsart FC
0.50

finishing

Pattani+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pattani ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pattani or draw
50%
Pattani or Kasetsart FC
72%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
78%

Winning margin

Pattani wins by 2+
7%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pattani 1+ goals
56%
Pattani 2+ goals
19%
Pattani 3+ goals
5%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
75%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
40%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pattani (draw refunded)
30%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pattani at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pattani attack 1.13 + Kasetsart FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.81

Kasetsart FC attack 1.25 + Pattani defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pattani scores more
22%
level
28%
Kasetsart FC scores more
50%

Kasetsart FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pattani vs Kasetsart FC

Kasetsart FC beat Pattani 1-0 in League Cup on October 25, 2023.

The match was played at Rainbow Stadium in Pattani.