Patronato 0–1 Banfield: Result & Stats

Patronato

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Banfield

G. Galoppo 50'

4/10/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 9Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Patronato39%

×Draw30%

Banfield32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatronatoExpected goals in this matchBanfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.00

Patronato

1.14

Banfield

1.00

Patronato creates 14% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 119 away

1.09

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Patronato

1.09

Banfield

0.89

allows per match

Patronato

1.11

Banfield

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par

Banfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

Banfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Patronato or draw

68%

Patronato or Banfield

70%

Draw or Banfield

61%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+

16%

Banfield wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals

68%

Patronato 2+ goals

32%

Patronato 3+ goals

11%

Banfield 1+ goals

63%

Banfield 2+ goals

26%

Banfield 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)

55%

Banfield (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Banfield away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.09 + Banfield defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Banfield attack 0.89 + Patronato defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Patronato scores more

39%

level

30%

Banfield scores more

32%

Patronato at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

N. Castro

Patronato · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

28'

34'

43'

46'

A. Cabrera← N. Domingo

50'

G. Galoppo

56'

O. Paz← L. Mosevich

56'

D. García← A. Rodríguez

56'

A. Sosa← S. Medina

62'

Alejandro Cabrera

67'

Gabriel GudiñoPenalty cancelled

70'

M. Romero← G. Galoppo

70'

J. Palacios← A. Urzi

71'

J. Herrera← L. Barrios

75'

J. Cruz← E. López

80'

J. Barinaga← F. Leys

85'

J. Eseiza← I. Escobar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PatronatoBanfield

Overview

53%Possession47%

20Total Shots14

9Corners4

16Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots14

5On Target5

8Off Target6

7Blocked3

13Inside Box9

7Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

249Total Passes238

152Accurate Passes141

61%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 0–1 Banfield

Banfield beat Patronato 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 10, 2022.

Goals: G. Galoppo (50').

Patronato controlled possession (53%) and registered 20 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.

Patronato vs Banfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 0–1 Banfield