Banfield 0–0 Patronato: Result & Stats

Banfield

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Patronato

8/6/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Banfield46%

×Draw27%

Patronato26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanfieldExpected goals in this matchPatronato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.97

Banfield

1.38

Patronato

0.97

Banfield creates 42% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 69 away

1.05

creates per match

0.83

1.11

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Banfield

1.05

Patronato

0.83

allows per match

Banfield

1.11

Patronato

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banfield+0.00on par

Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield ↓

Patronato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Banfield or draw

74%

Banfield or Patronato

73%

Draw or Patronato

54%

Winning margin

Banfield wins by 2+

22%

Patronato wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Banfield 1+ goals

75%

Banfield 2+ goals

40%

Banfield 3+ goals

16%

Patronato 1+ goals

62%

Patronato 2+ goals

25%

Patronato 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Banfield (draw refunded)

64%

Patronato (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 118 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.70 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield attack 1.05 + Patronato defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.38

Patronato attack 0.83 + Banfield defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Banfield scores more

46%

level

27%

Patronato scores more

26%

Banfield at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

F. Altamirano

Patronato · G

8.6

Match Events

36'

Emanuel Coronel

39'

Jonas Acevedo

46'

F. Cobos← S. Medina

46'

T. Banega← J. Barinaga

48'

Matías GonzálezPenalty confirmed

50'

Francisco Álvarez

65'

M. Estigarribia← J. Giani

66'

A. Chávez← J. Dátolo

66'

N. Bertolo← M. González

72'

Francisco Álvarez

72'

Francisco Álvarez

73'

S. Ojeda← A. Sosa

76'

J. Palacios← N. Domingo

79'

87'

88'

90+5'

90+5'

Andrés ChávezRed card cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BanfieldPatronato

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots9

5Corners1

15Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots9

6On Target2

5Off Target4

6Blocked3

8Inside Box3

9Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

354Total Passes287

251Accurate Passes165

71%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1