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Paris Saint Germain W vs Marseille W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Marseille W
Marseille W
T. Elimbi 80'
J. Echegini 72'
J. Perret 83'
3/11/2026Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 17Paris Saint-Germain Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W81%
×Draw12%
Marseille W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain W
2.96
Marseille W
0.75

Paris Saint Germain W creates 295% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 22 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W
3.15
Marseille W
1.09

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W
0.41
Marseille W
2.77

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par
Marseille W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Marseille W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw
93%
Paris Saint Germain W or Marseille W
88%
Draw or Marseille W
19%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
62%
Marseille W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
95%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
79%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
55%
Marseille W 1+ goals
53%
Marseille W 2+ goals
17%
Marseille W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
92%
Marseille W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 3.15, concedes 0.41 · 86 matches

Marseille W away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 3.15 + Marseille W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.96

Marseille W attack 1.09 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more
81%
level
12%
Marseille W scores more
7%

Paris Saint Germain W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
T. ElimbiParis Saint Germain WParis Saint Germain W · D
8.2

Match Events

20'
Thiniba Samoura
21'
Rasheedat Ajibade
26'
Salomé Elisor
46'
G. Mbock← T. Samoura
46'
T. Elimbi← R. Ajibade
72'
J. Echegini↳ M. Kanjinga
73'
M. Le Mouel← N. Bamenga
73'
M. Herrera Monge← S. Cabezas
78'
L. Morissaint← R. Leuchter
78'
N. Fatier← P. Dudek
80'
T. Elimbi↳ S. Karchaoui
83'
J. Perret↳ M. Herrera Monge
84'
Tara Elimbi
84'
F. Jourde← S. Karchaoui
84'
M. Moryl← L. Bourgouin
84'
M. Alvarez← N. Blanchard
85'
Jackie Groenen
90'
R. Khezami← I. Kbida

Possession

58%Paris

Shots

13Paris

Pass accuracy

54%Paris

Statistics

ParisMarseille
Overview
58%Possession42%
13Total Shots10
11Corners4
13Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots10
5On Target3
6Off Target4
2Blocked3
10Inside Box4
3Outside Box6
Passing
58%Possession42%
414Total Passes301
346Accurate Passes218
84%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls11
4Yellow Cards1
11Offsides1

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain W vs Marseille W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Marseille W 2-1 in Feminine Division 1 on March 11, 2026.

Goals: J. Echegini (72'), T. Elimbi (80'), J. Perret (83').

Paris Saint Germain W controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Paris Saint-Germain Training Center in Poissy.