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Marseille W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Marseille W
Marseille W
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
J. Perret 67'
L. Morissaint 90'
G. Mbock 85'
O. Graziani 72'
M. Kanjinga 70'
R. Leuchter 7'
12/5/2025Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 9Stade Roger Lebert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Marseille W11%
×Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain W72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marseille W
0.88
Paris Saint Germain W
2.50

Paris Saint Germain W creates 184% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 88 away

creates per match

Marseille W
0.92
Paris Saint Germain W
2.61

allows per match

Marseille W
2.40
Paris Saint Germain W
0.84

finishing

Marseille W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Marseille W or draw
28%
Marseille W or Paris Saint Germain W
84%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
89%

Winning margin

Marseille W wins by 2+
3%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Marseille W 1+ goals
59%
Marseille W 2+ goals
22%
Marseille W 3+ goals
6%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
92%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
71%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Marseille W (draw refunded)
14%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.40 · 25 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.61, concedes 0.84 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille W attack 0.92 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.61 + Marseille W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Marseille W scores more
11%
level
16%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
72%

Paris Saint Germain W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
M. KanjingaParis Saint Germain WParis Saint Germain W · F
9.2

Match Events

7'
R. Leuchter
32'
Jennifer Echegini
46'
O. Graziani← Isabela
60'
Laura Bourgouin
64'
Anaïs Ebayilin
65'
J. Perret← I. Kbida
65'
S. Elisor← J. Brown
66'
M. Kanjinga← Yaya
67'
J. Perret
70'
M. Kanjinga↳ E. De Almeida
72'
O. Graziani↳ M. Kanjinga
75'
T. Diakite← R. Leuchter
75'
L. Morissaint← S. Karchaoui
81'
T. Samoura← E. De Almeida
85'
R. Couasnon← R. Khezami
85'
D. Scannapieco← M. Le Mouel
85'
G. Mbock↳ L. Morissaint
90'
Tante Diakite
90+1'
M. Moryl← M. Bourdieu
90'
L. Morissaint↳ M. Kanjinga

Possession

22%Marseille

Shots

4Marseille

Pass accuracy

42%Marseille

Statistics

MarseilleParis
Overview
22%Possession78%
4Total Shots15
2Corners9
5Fouls11
Shots
4Total Shots15
3On Target10
0Off Target2
1Blocked3
3Inside Box11
1Outside Box4
Passing
22%Possession78%
196Total Passes720
129Accurate Passes648
66%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Marseille W vs Paris Saint Germain W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Marseille W 5-1 in Feminine Division 1 on December 5, 2025.

Goals: R. Leuchter (7'), J. Perret (67'), M. Kanjinga (70'), O. Graziani (72'), G. Mbock (85'), L. Morissaint (90').

Paris Saint Germain W controlled possession (78%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Roger Lebert in Marseille.