Paris Saint Germain W 11–0 Marseille W

Paris Saint Germain W

FT

11 – 0

HT: 8 – 0

Marseille W

S. Baltimore 79', 70'

M. Katoto 57', 40', 22'

K. Diani 45', 32', 5'

N. Nadim 37', 10'

Formiga 29'

1/18/2020

Feminine Division 1 · Round 13Stade Jean Bouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W81%

×Draw12%

Marseille W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris Saint Germain WExpected goals in this matchMarseille W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

0.75

Paris Saint Germain W

2.96

Marseille W

0.75

Paris Saint Germain W creates 295% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 22 away

3.15

creates per match

1.09

0.41

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W

3.15

Marseille W

1.09

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W

0.41

Marseille W

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Marseille W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Marseille W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw

93%

Paris Saint Germain W or Marseille W

88%

Draw or Marseille W

19%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+

62%

Marseille W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals

95%

Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals

79%

Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals

55%

Marseille W 1+ goals

53%

Marseille W 2+ goals

17%

Marseille W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)

92%

Marseille W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 3.15, concedes 0.41 · 86 matches

Marseille W away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 3.15 + Marseille W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.96

Marseille W attack 1.09 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more

81%

level

12%

Marseille W scores more

7%

Paris Saint Germain W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

10'

22'

29'

32'

37'

40'

45'

46'

51'

57'

59'

S. Zahot← N. Coton-Pelagie

63'

Formiga

63'

S. Baltimore← K. Diani

63'

Luana← Formiga

70'

S. Baltimore

72'

J. Hamidou← C. Gherbi

74'

J. Huitema← N. Nadim

79'

S. Baltimore

Paris

Marseille

1

Joly

22

Laplacett

17

Lamarque

7

▼

Coton-Pel

20

Pizzala

6

▼

Gherbi

9

Salomon

2

Altunkula

18

▼

29

12

16

14

4

17

24

⚽

▼

Formiga

12

Lawrence

8

Geyoro

10

⚽2

▼

Nadim

11

⚽3

▼

Diani

20

Morroni

9

⚽3

Katoto

Manager: O. Echouafni

63'▲S. Baltimore←▼K. Diani

63'▲Luana←▼Formiga

74'▲J. Huitema←▼N. Nadim

Paris Saint Germain W substitutes

21Baltimore6Luana23Huitema1Kiedrzynek5Cook7Diallo27Khelifi

Manager: C. Parra

46'▲A. Maetz←▼A. Conesa

59'▲S. Zahot←▼N. Coton-Pelagie

72'▲J. Hamidou←▼C. Gherbi

Marseille W substitutes

3Maetz13Zahot23Hamidou8Coudon10Palacin11Caputo16Arouaissa

Feminine Division 1: Paris Saint Germain W 11–0 Marseille W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Marseille W 11-0 in Feminine Division 1 on January 18, 2020.

Goals: K. Diani (5', 32', 45'), N. Nadim (10', 37'), M. Katoto (22', 40', 57'), Formiga (29'), S. Baltimore (70', 79').

The match was played at Stade Jean Bouin in Paris.

Paris Saint Germain W vs Marseille W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Feminine Division 1: Paris Saint Germain W 11–0 Marseille W