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Paris Saint Germain vs Nice — Ligue 1 2018

Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Nice
Nice
Fabián Ruiz 41'
Y. Ndayishimiye 70'
M. Sanson 46', 34'
4/25/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 31Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Paris Saint Germain61%
×Draw21%
Nice18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain
2.04
Nice
1.00

Paris Saint Germain creates 104% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain
2.39
Nice
1.15

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain
0.86
Nice
1.70

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.07on par
Nice+0.04on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Nice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw
82%
Paris Saint Germain or Nice
79%
Draw or Nice
39%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
37%
Nice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
87%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
60%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
33%
Nice 1+ goals
63%
Nice 2+ goals
26%
Nice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
77%
Nice (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.86 · 26 matches

Nice away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.39 + Nice defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.04

Nice attack 1.15 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more
61%
level
21%
Nice scores more
18%

Paris Saint Germain at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. BułkaNiceNice · G
10.0

Match Events

34'
M. Sanson↳ B. Bouanani
41'
Fabián Ruiz↳ O. Dembélé
43'
Ali Abdi
45+2'
João Neves
46'
M. Sanson↳ J. Clauss
59'
W. Zaïre-Emery← João Neves
59'
B. Barcola← D. Doué
67'
A. Mendy← Mohamed Abdelmonem
67'
B. Santamaría← M. Sanson
68'
Nuno Mendes
68'
Gonçalo Ramos← O. Dembélé
69'
Beraldo← Marquinhos
70'
Y. Ndayishimiye↳ B. Bouanani
72'
Warren Zaïre-Emery
75'
S. Diop← B. Bouanani
78'
S. Mayulu← Fabián Ruiz
86'
E. Guessand← G. Laborde
86'
T. Louchet← A. Abdi

Possession

76%Paris

Shots

32Paris

Pass accuracy

54%Paris

Statistics

ParisNice
Overview
76%Possession24%
32Total Shots7
3.16Expected Goals (xG)0.96
17Corners0
9Fouls11
Shots
32Total Shots7
13On Target3
7Off Target3
12Blocked1
20Inside Box6
12Outside Box1
Passing
76%Possession24%
780Total Passes249
717Accurate Passes191
92%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves12
2.53Goals Prevented2.53
Discipline
9Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Paris Saint Germain vs Nice

Nice beat Paris Saint Germain 3-1 in Ligue 1 on April 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Sanson (34', 46'), Fabián Ruiz (41'), Y. Ndayishimiye (70').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (76%) and registered 32 shots to 7.

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.