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Nice vs Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1 2018

Nice
Nice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
M. Cho 32'
Y. Zague 23'
B. Barcola 18'
5/15/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 32Allianz Riviera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Nice28%
×Draw23%
Paris Saint Germain49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nice
1.29
Paris Saint Germain
1.79

Paris Saint Germain creates 39% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

creates per match

Nice
1.53
Paris Saint Germain
2.08

allows per match

Nice
1.49
Paris Saint Germain
1.06

finishing

Nice-0.29scores less
Paris Saint Germain-0.08on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nice ↓

Paris Saint Germain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Nice or draw
51%
Nice or Paris Saint Germain
77%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain
72%

Winning margin

Nice wins by 2+
12%
Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Nice 1+ goals
72%
Nice 2+ goals
37%
Nice 3+ goals
14%
Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
83%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
53%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Nice (draw refunded)
36%
Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nice at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 21 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.06 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nice attack 1.53 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.08 + Nice defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nice scores more
28%
level
23%
Paris Saint Germain scores more
49%

Paris Saint Germain at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
B. BarcolaParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain · F
7.9

Match Events

18'
B. Barcola↳ Fabián Ruiz
20'
Yoram Zague
23'
Y. Zague↳ B. Barcola
26'
Lucas Beraldo
32'
M. Cho↳ J. Boga
33'
Marquinhos
58'
A. Mendy← J. Lotomba
58'
G. Laborde← M. Cho
68'
H. Boudaoui← M. Sanson
68'
E. Guessand← T. Moffi
71'
S. Mayulu← Gonçalo Ramos
71'
Marco Asensio← Lee Kang-In
75'
Melvin Bard
82'
R. Perraud← K. Thuram
84'
Carlos Soler← Fabián Ruiz
90+3'
Pablo Rosario

Possession

36%Nice

Shots

12Nice

Pass accuracy

49%Nice

Statistics

NiceParis
Overview
36%Possession64%
12Total Shots11
1.38Expected Goals (xG)0.97
7Corners2
13Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots11
4On Target4
6Off Target4
2Blocked3
8Inside Box5
4Outside Box6
Passing
36%Possession64%
392Total Passes714
344Accurate Passes644
88%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0

Ligue 1: Nice 1–2 Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain beat Nice 2-1 in Ligue 1 on May 15, 2024.

Goals: B. Barcola (18'), Y. Zague (23'), M. Cho (32').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Allianz Riviera in Nice.