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Nice vs Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1 2018

Nice
Nice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
10/6/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Allianz Riviera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Nice28%
×Draw23%
Paris Saint Germain49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nice
1.29
Paris Saint Germain
1.79

Paris Saint Germain creates 39% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

creates per match

Nice
1.53
Paris Saint Germain
2.08

allows per match

Nice
1.49
Paris Saint Germain
1.06

finishing

Nice-0.29scores less
Paris Saint Germain-0.08on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nice ↓

Paris Saint Germain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Nice or draw
51%
Nice or Paris Saint Germain
77%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain
72%

Winning margin

Nice wins by 2+
12%
Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Nice 1+ goals
72%
Nice 2+ goals
37%
Nice 3+ goals
14%
Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
83%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
53%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Nice (draw refunded)
36%
Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nice at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 21 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.06 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nice attack 1.53 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.08 + Nice defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nice scores more
28%
level
23%
Paris Saint Germain scores more
49%

Paris Saint Germain at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Nice 1–1 Paris Saint Germain

Nice and Paris Saint Germain drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Allianz Riviera in Nice.