Paris FC W 4–0 Dijon W: Result & Stats

Paris FC W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dijon W

L. Ribadeira 90'

C. Matéo 73', 16'

K. Bussy 14'

12/14/2024

Feminine Division 1 · Round 11Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Paris FC W60%

×Draw21%

Dijon W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FC WExpected goals in this matchDijon W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.02

Paris FC W

1.99

Dijon W

1.02

Paris FC W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 87 away

2.06

creates per match

0.93

1.10

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Paris FC W

2.06

Dijon W

0.93

allows per match

Paris FC W

1.10

Dijon W

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Dijon W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC W ↓

Dijon W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Paris FC W or draw

81%

Paris FC W or Dijon W

79%

Draw or Dijon W

40%

Winning margin

Paris FC W wins by 2+

36%

Dijon W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Paris FC W 1+ goals

86%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

59%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

32%

Dijon W 1+ goals

64%

Dijon W 2+ goals

27%

Dijon W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

76%

Dijon W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC W at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.10 · 86 matches

Dijon W away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.92 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC W attack 2.06 + Dijon W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.99

Dijon W attack 0.93 + Paris FC W defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Paris FC W scores more

60%

level

21%

Dijon W scores more

19%

Paris FC W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Matéo

Paris FC W · F

9.0

Match Events

14'

16'

45'

46'

63'

M. Le Mouël← M. Bourdieu

63'

M. Garbino← K. Korošec

65'

T. McGrady← N. Carage

66'

K. Jedlińska← M. Terchoun

72'

L. Ribadeira← J. Dufour

73'

C. Matéo↳ M. Le Mouël

76'

76'

77'

83'

83'

Wu Chengshu← N. Krezyman

90'

L. Ribadeira↳ D. Corboz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParisDijon

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots8

5Corners6

9Fouls4

Shots

17Total Shots8

10On Target3

4Off Target3

3Blocked2

13Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

551Total Passes377

454Accurate Passes291

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls4

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2