Dijon W 6–0 Paris FC W: Result & Stats

Dijon W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Paris FC W

O. Picard 90+1'

M. Terchoun 71', 12'

L. Declercq 45+2'

K. Jedlińska 38'

R. Lavaud 22'

5/7/2025

Feminine Division 1 · Round 22Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dijon W23%

×Draw23%

Paris FC W54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dijon WExpected goals in this matchParis FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.84

Dijon W

1.13

Paris FC W

1.84

Paris FC W creates 63% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 87 away

1.13

creates per match

1.93

1.75

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Dijon W

1.13

Paris FC W

1.93

allows per match

Dijon W

1.75

Paris FC W

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dijon W+0.00on par

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon W ↓

Paris FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dijon W or draw

46%

Dijon W or Paris FC W

77%

Draw or Paris FC W

77%

Winning margin

Dijon W wins by 2+

9%

Paris FC W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Dijon W 1+ goals

68%

Dijon W 2+ goals

31%

Dijon W 3+ goals

11%

Paris FC W 1+ goals

84%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

55%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dijon W (draw refunded)

30%

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon W attack 1.13 + Paris FC W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Paris FC W attack 1.93 + Dijon W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dijon W scores more

23%

level

23%

Paris FC W scores more

54%

Paris FC W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Terchoun

Dijon W · M

10.0

Match Events

12'

M. Terchoun↳ L. Goetsch

22'

R. Lavaud

38'

K. Jedlińska↳ M. Terchoun

45+2'

L. Declercq↳ M. Terchoun

46'

L. Faerber← L. Brochet

47'

T. McGrady← L. Goetsch

48'

K. Taylor← N. Carage

48'

O. Picard← L. Declercq

57'

L. Girard← S. Hunter

60'

L. Defour← V. Pinther

60'

M. Richelandet← K. Jedlińska

71'

M. Terchoun↳ O. Picard

75'

S. Loubli← K. Roche Dufour

76'

N. Moutombi← J. Bachene

89'

Lou DefourMissed penalty

90'

Sabrina Amessis

90+1'

E. Boullonnois← S. Amessis

90+1'

O. Picard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DijonParis

Overview

62%Possession38%

26Total Shots5

7Corners0

5Fouls6

Shots

26Total Shots5

17On Target0

9Off Target1

0Blocked4

21Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

560Total Passes335

488Accurate Passes241

87%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves11

Discipline

5Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2