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Dijon W vs Paris FC W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Dijon W
Dijon W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Paris FC W
Paris FC W
Wu Chengshu 47'
K. Korosec 38'
C. Mateo 26'
4/25/2026Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 21Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dijon W23%
×Draw23%
Paris FC W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon W
1.13
Paris FC W
1.84

Paris FC W creates 63% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dijon W
1.13
Paris FC W
1.93

allows per match

Dijon W
1.75
Paris FC W
1.14

finishing

Dijon W+0.00on par
Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon W ↓

Paris FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dijon W or draw
46%
Dijon W or Paris FC W
77%
Draw or Paris FC W
77%

Winning margin

Dijon W wins by 2+
9%
Paris FC W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Dijon W 1+ goals
68%
Dijon W 2+ goals
31%
Dijon W 3+ goals
11%
Paris FC W 1+ goals
84%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
55%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dijon W (draw refunded)
30%
Paris FC W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon W attack 1.13 + Paris FC W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Paris FC W attack 1.93 + Dijon W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dijon W scores more
23%
level
23%
Paris FC W scores more
54%

Paris FC W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. MateoParis FC WParis FC W · F
7.7

Match Events

26'
C. Mateo↳ L. Bogaert
37'
Wang Yanwen
38'
K. Korosec↳ K. Jedlinska
47'
Wu Chengshu↳ M. Terchoun
54'
F. Liaigre← L. Bogaert
54'
T. Greboval← D. Davis
62'
M. Vairon← J. Denizot
62'
L. Gay← G. Grzybowska
69'
L. Azzaro← O. Picard
69'
H. Sangare← K. Jedlinska
70'
O. Domin← Wang Yanwen
71'
A. Fontaine← Wu Chengshu
74'
Lina Gay
80'
M. Haelewyn← K. Taylor
81'
Anaële Le Moguédec
86'
T. Sissoko← M. Mendy
90+1'
Melween Ndongala

Possession

42%Dijon

Shots

6Dijon

Pass accuracy

48%Dijon

Statistics

DijonParis
Overview
42%Possession58%
6Total Shots16
4Corners3
6Fouls8
Shots
6Total Shots16
1On Target4
4Off Target7
1Blocked5
6Inside Box9
1Outside Box7
Passing
42%Possession58%
372Total Passes512
273Accurate Passes409
73%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
6Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2

Feminine Division 1: Dijon W 1–2 Paris FC W

Paris FC W beat Dijon W 2-1 in Feminine Division 1 on April 25, 2026.

Goals: C. Mateo (26'), K. Korosec (38'), Wu Chengshu (47').

Paris FC W controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.