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Paris FC vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Paris FC
Paris FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Niort
Niort
I. Kebbal 90+3'
M. Guilavogui 86', 72' (pen)
2/25/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Paris FC51%
×Draw26%
Niort23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC
1.48
Niort
0.89

Paris FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 93 away

creates per match

Paris FC
1.42
Niort
0.84

allows per match

Paris FC
0.94
Niort
1.55

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw
77%
Paris FC or Niort
74%
Draw or Niort
49%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+
26%
Niort wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals
77%
Paris FC 2+ goals
43%
Paris FC 3+ goals
19%
Niort 1+ goals
59%
Niort 2+ goals
22%
Niort 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)
69%
Niort (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 127 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.42 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Niort attack 0.84 + Paris FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Paris FC scores more
51%
level
26%
Niort scores more
23%

Paris FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. GuilavoguiParis FCParis FC · F
9.0

Match Events

9'
Samuel Renel
52'
K. Mbala← A. Gory
62'
J. Flemmings← K. Rocheteau
69'
I. Kebbal← K. Boutaïb
72'
M. GuilavoguiPenalty
85'
R. Bakayoko← S. Renel
86'
M. Guilavogui↳ K. Mbala
90+3'
I. Kebbal↳ M. Bernauer

Possession

59%Paris

Shots

16Paris

Pass accuracy

53%Paris

Statistics

ParisNiort
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots7
5Corners4
15Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots7
8On Target4
7Off Target3
1Blocked0
13Inside Box4
3Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
575Total Passes404
494Accurate Passes312
86%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Ligue 2: Paris FC 3–0 Niort

Paris FC beat Niort 3-0 in Ligue 2 on February 25, 2023.

Goals: M. Guilavogui (72' pen, 86'), I. Kebbal (90+3').

Paris FC controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.