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Niort vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
M. Zemzemi 61'
B. Boutobba 56'
W. Caddy 73'
8/20/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort34%
×Draw29%
Paris FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.08
Paris FC
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 128 away

creates per match

Niort
1.09
Paris FC
1.05

allows per match

Niort
1.22
Paris FC
1.08

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Niort or draw
63%
Niort or Paris FC
71%
Draw or Paris FC
66%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
13%
Paris FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
66%
Niort 2+ goals
29%
Niort 3+ goals
10%
Paris FC 1+ goals
68%
Paris FC 2+ goals
32%
Paris FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
48%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Niort scores more
34%
level
29%
Paris FC scores more
37%

Paris FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
B. BoutobbaNiortNiort · M
8.3

Match Events

43'
Lenny Vallier
46'
M. Guilavogui← M. Chahiri
56'
B. Boutobba↳ A. Sagna
60'
Samy Benchama
61'
M. Zemzemi↳ B. Boutobba
65'
J. Hadjam← F. Hanin
65'
S. Karamoko← A. Gory
65'
W. Caddy← P. Hamel
70'
Joris Moutachy
71'
Y. Merdji← A. Sagna
72'
G. Bentil← K. Rocheteau
73'
W. Caddy↳ J. Hadjam
74'
Ibrahima Sory Conté
78'
Charles Kabore
80'
J. Olaitan← C. Kaboré

Possession

44%Niort

Shots

6Niort

Pass accuracy

49%Niort

Statistics

NiortParis
Overview
44%Possession56%
6Total Shots18
1Corners7
13Fouls14
Shots
6Total Shots18
3On Target4
3Off Target10
0Blocked4
4Inside Box15
2Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
373Total Passes458
294Accurate Passes377
79%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls14
5Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Niort 2 – 1 Paris FC

Niort beat Paris FC 2-1 in Ligue 2 on August 20, 2022.

Goals: B. Boutobba (56'), M. Zemzemi (61'), W. Caddy (73').

Paris FC controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.